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Oil Rises as Hormuz Risks Persist | Horizons Middle East & Africa 9/4/2026
Oil heads for its biggest weekly gain since July, approaching $96 a barrel as risks around the Strait of Hormuz keep prices elevated. The yen surges ahead of the BOJ’s rate decision, while the dollar falls to its weakest level since May. US stocks rally as Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals openness to holding rates if inflation continues to improve, while bonds rise and markets reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
The US adds 55,000 jobs in August, while JPMorgan warns that a $103 billion yen short position could unwind if the currency strengthens beyond 155. The BOJ is leaning toward a quarter-point rate hike. Asian stocks climb as expectations for Fed easing cool and the yen gains on rate-hike and intervention risks. Bitcoin retakes $80,000 as choppy US demand tests the rally.
In technology, OpenAI rolls out its GPT-6 Astra model, with Sam Altman saying the launch took longer than expected. Altman says there are clear red lines for AI models and that debate over AI limits will continue, while acknowledging the industry has done a poor job explaining AI’s benefits. Anthropic is nearing a $15 billion credit facility, while Nvidia is reportedly set to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $13 billion.
Saudi AI firm Human adopts China’s MiniMax M3 model, sending MiniMax shares higher, as Human also eyes a $2.5 billion data-center fund. Middle East investment is expected to grow despite regional unrest, with Standard Chartered forecasting continued GCC investment, particularly in infrastructure, technology and defense, and capital expenditure potentially exceeding 2025 levels.
Markets also monitor the security situation around Hormuz. The US says oil flows through the strait are increasing, while South Korea says it has made no decision on sending troops to the region. Marisks warns that LNG tankers are making fewer trips through Hormuz and expects any US operation to remain geographically contained, while highlighting the risk of further US-Iran escalation over the weekend.
In Africa, Senegal plans to continue servicing its Eurobonds, while South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago says there is room for caution on further rate moves. Nigeria’s naira is on track for its strongest year since 2018. Guests includes Ketaki Sharma, Algorithm Research Founder & CEO, Carla Slim, Standard Chartered Bank Chief Economist Middle East & Pakistan and Dimitris Maniatis, Marisks CEO.
Horizons Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world's fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.
Chapters:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:04:32 - Ketaki Sharma, Algorithm Research Founder & CEO
00:11:01 - Hormuz Risks Keep Oil Elevated
00:14:58 - Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO & Co-Founder
00:19:59 - OpenAI Rolls Out GPT-6 Astra Model
00:28:26 - Carla Slim, Standard Chartered Bank Chief Economist, Middle East & Pakistan
00:33:37 - Dimitris Maniatis, Marisks CEO
00:42:26 - US to Report August Jobs Data Later
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Published Sep 4, 2026
