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Four Years Into Putin’s War, Are We Any Closer to a Peace Deal?
Daniel Tannebaum, Partner at Oliver Wyman & Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, discusses the Russia-Ukraine war, as it marks the end of its fourth year, and next steps in talks for peace.
President Donald Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are stalling with peace talks deadlocked and the fighting largely at a stalemate after four years of war.
Allies say the US is pushing for a deal before Trump hosts the 250th anniversary celebrations of American independence on July 4. But there’s no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to reach an agreement that doesn’t grant his central demands, according to senior European and NATO officials.
The talks have already blown through several deadlines and even some US officials admit privately that they see no signs Putin is willing to budge from his maximalist positions, the people said.
The White House didn’t respond to a Bloomberg News request for comment.
Russia’s full-scale invasion that began on Feb. 24, 2022 reaches its four-year mark on Tuesday with no sign of ending any time soon. That’s a far cry from Putin’s initial plan for his special military operation to remove the leadership in Kyiv within days.
While Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025 pledging to bring a swift end to Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, more than a year of US-led diplomacy is foundering on the question of Russian demands for territory in eastern Ukraine and the issue of control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Three rounds of trilateral talks so far this year in Abu Dhabi and Geneva have failed to deliver a resolution. Ukraine’s European allies have been largely sidelined from the negotiations, even as they’re mostly funding weapons purchases to aid Kyiv’s defense after Trump wound down US military assistance.
Moscow and Washington are effectively in a contest to see who’ll blink first in the negotiations led by US special envoy Steven Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, said a senior NATO official familiar with the discussions. That would mean either Russia giving in on some of its red lines, which include full control of the lands in the eastern Donbas region or the US abandoning Ukraine.
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Published Feb 24, 2026
